In an appearance on “The Takeout” this week, Mr Biden‘s pollster, John Anzalone, discussed some of the key takeaways from the midterm elections. Some of these include the fact that Donald Trump is in a weaker position than he was in 2020, that President Biden is ready to “beat him like a drum,” that Democrats still have a problem with their brand, and that Florida is now a “reclamation project” for the party.
Anzalone stated that he, along with a large number of other Democratic strategists and pollsters, was significantly more concerned than Mr. Biden about broad Democratic losses in House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections.
Anzalone admitted their error, saying, “Joe Biden was right, and I was wrong.” “There were a lot of occurrences that took place that we haven’t seen in a very long time. Since 2016, there is no longer adherence to any guidelines.”
These midterm surprises were described by Anzalone as follows:
- Mr Biden‘s approval rating improved from the summer to the fall, despite persistently high inflation, recession worries, and stock market declines.
- Independents broke late for Democrats, something the party in power had not seen since 2002, a midterm deeply influenced by the national trauma of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
- Democrats narrowly won late-deciding voters who made up their minds in the last week of voting. Typically, the party in power in tough economic times, Anzalone said, loses these voters by margins of 3-1 or 4-1.
“The other thing is that those people who had a soft unfavourable view of him broke big towards the Democrats,” Anzalone said. “He wasn’t a part of the bad part that people thought was going to happen.”
Democrats also had unexpected help, Anzalone said.
Anzalone stated that nothing about Trump’s candidacy will discourage Biden, who has indicated that he intends to run for re-election but will not make a final decision until early 2023. This week, Trump announced a third run for the White House. This week, Anzalone stated that nothing about Trump’s candidacy would discourage Biden.
“I know enough about President Biden and his staff that he believes he can beat Donald Trump, and I think he can beat Donald Trump like a drum,” Anzalone added. “I know enough about President Biden and his team that he believes he can beat Donald Trump.” “I currently believe that Donald Trump is in a vulnerable position. In addition, I believe that people have consistently underrated Joe Biden’s capacity for strength.”
Anzalone, known in Democratic circles for his honesty, said Democrats could not afford to overlook their weaknesses.
“We still have a branding problem,” Anzalone said. “The American people think we are more interested in prioritizing social problems than economic problems. We also have a problem with rural America. We have to work on crime and immigration.”
Florida was a bright spot for Republicans, and Anzalone conceded the state’s 30 electoral votes may be out of reach in 2024. “Florida is a reclamation project,” Anzalone said. “Florida is expensive. You have to make the resource allocation, that cost-benefit analysis. So the map changes.
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