The government has set additional unemployment pay for more than 11 million Americans, but that is coming to an end. Employer economists and central bankers wait for millions of workers to start their job applications to fill open positions and meet customer demand. At the same time, it is intended to lower the pressure on prices that persist despite the abundance of shortages.
Oxford Economics economist Lydia Boussour said: “The August jobs report could be critical for the Federal Reserve as it prepares to cut its bond-buying program this year.” Additionally, she adds that virus care policymakers will see the report and likely see it as further substantial progress in the labor market, and slower hiring will reinforce the FED’s focus.
Lately, it has been witnessed how bad news can continue to be good. Disappointing hiring will allow investors to believe that there will be no reduction in the monthly purchase of emergency bonds before November. However, hiring cannot slow down too much because there are many growth concerns.
Economists have certain estimates for nonfarm payrolls for this month, based on data for August. Statistics range from 400,000 to 1 million, but most fall between 600,000 and 850,000. The median estimate is 750,000 versus July’s 943,000, according to FactSet.
Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson said there is too much risk. He has noted a sharp slowdown in payroll growth consensus due to “the clear Delta-driven swing” in the indicators, around the same time that consumers spend money on discretionary services, such as restaurants and airlines. In addition, he says that the interruption of the rise in hiring is much more pronounced in the southeast of the country, where the Delta variant has generated huge hospitalizations. He points out that the number of diners in restaurants has dropped a lot (even in New York, where there are fewer cases of the Delta variant than expected)
In addition to this, Shepherdson predicts a payroll profit of only 400,000; however, he indicates that there may be a substantial margin of error, plus or minus 300,000, in his forecast.
On the other hand, Nancy Lazar, Cornerstone Macro’s chief economist, estimates an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 950,000. She hopes the August report will reflect the return of workers who have lost government-issued unemployment benefits, appearing encouraged by ADP’s surprisingly weak payroll report on Wednesday.
The population has shown concern about the activation of labor processes in the presence of new variants of COVID-19. As infections and contagion increase, economic activity has slowed dramatically, but office reopening has increased and creates mistrust in consumers.