According to new data from the New York Fed, U.S. households’ expectations for inflation over the next year increased to match the highest level ever recorded in May. Consumers expect inflation to increase at a 6.6 percent rate over the course of the next year, up from an April reading of 6.3 percent, according to the NY Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which was released on Monday. In records going back to June 2013, May’s reading was tied with March’s print for the highest reading ever.
Consumers expected longer-term inflation to average 3.9 percent over the following three years last month, which was a slightly more moderate outlook than usual. However, this expectation is still far higher than the Fed’s 2 percent target. These longer-term projections remained the same as in April. The Federal Reserve’s goal of bringing down increasing prices and preventing consumer expectations from taking root is made more difficult by these statistics.
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Just a few days prior, government data revealed an unexpected acceleration in the rate of price rises across the U.S. economy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Friday showed an annual increase of 8.6 percent, which is the highest level since 1981 as prices for energy, food, shelter, and a number of other products and services all increased. According to AAA data, petrol prices at the pump rose above $5 per gallon nationwide on average over the weekend for the first time ever, further stressing already-strapped households.
Additionally, consumer confidence has drastically dropped as a result of these price increases. In the preliminary June poll, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers consumer sentiment index plunged to a record-low value of 50.2, the survey’s lowest level since the middle of the 1970s. The most recent statistics on consumer inflation expectations from the University of Michigan also indicated an increase, correlating with the increase in the New York Fed report.
Early in June, consumers predicted that inflation would increase by 5.4 percent over the following year, matching the values from March and April and marking the highest levels since 1981, according to the university’s study. Long-term inflation expectations increased last month to 3.3 percent, the highest level since at least 2010. This was revealed by UMich statistics.